CSIRO Aims for Artificial Intelligence and Space Technology Advancements with $35M Increase in Funding

The top science and space agency of Australia announced a massive $35 million investment into space technology and artificial intelligence, which is anticipated to act as a significant part of the state run science and space agency’s portfolio for the Future Science Platforms, which was initiated by the organization during 2016.

Investment to Develop Solutions for Real-world Problems

A large chunk of the $35 million investment will be spent on developing machine learning and artificial intelligence capabilities, to improve understanding and predictions on complex information build upon solutions for global issues of high importance including sustainable energy production, environment protection, and food security among others.

$16 million will be pressed into development of advancements in space technology that will primarily be used for the observation of the earth, efficient utilization of resources in space, manufacturing equipment for Mars and Moon missions, improving life support systems, alongside the accurate tracking of interstellar objects. The activities will also involve the employment of post-doctoral researchers and students, and a number of collaborations within the industry.

Apart from artificial intelligence, machine learning, and new space technology CSIRO’s future science platforms portfolio also includes modules such as environomics, precision health, synthetic biology, active integrated matter, probing bio-systems, digiscape, hydrogen energy systems, and deep earth imaging. For instance, the initiative made automotive hydrogen powered systems work through hydrogen extracted from ammonia.

Australian Space Agency Projected to Triple in Size

The $16 million investment combined with the $26 million from the federal budget earlier this year, will be key to the formation of a dedicated Australian Space Agency. This move is anticipated to grow the size of the Australian space sector by three times to $20 billion by the year 2030. The researchers at CSIRO are also currently researching laser technology that is touted to bring about a revolution in how data is captured from space. The process is anticipated to increase data capture by up to 10 times through the use of optics and light instead of radio waves.

The Future Science Platform is anticipated to utilize the challenging environment of Australia to opportunities for scientific growth that will put the country on center-stage on a global scale, by bringing the best expertise in regards to technology, science, math, and engineering. This will be able to develop innovative solutions for problems for various regions around the world, giving Australia an edge in the market.

Nestle To Grab Consumer Nutrition Business of GlaxoSmithKline in India

Some of the biggest consumer companies across the globe have been eyeing on the nutrition business of GlaxoSmithKline and the competition has been intensifying for securing the expensive Horlicks malted drink product of the company. Amongst other products, malt-based drinks are considered as one of the largest health-food drink across India.

Nestle is pitted against Unilever in the final talk of negotiations for acquiring GSK’s Indian consumer nutrition business, which is inclusive of Horlicks malted drink product. Nestle has been taking the lead with a significantly huge offer by leaving Unilever behind and Coca-Cola being the third contender has been opted out. The winner will be launching an open offer for mopping up nearly 26% additional stake.

Earlier this year, GlaxoSmithKline had mentioned about a strategic review with regards to its nutrition business across the globe and this review is likely to conclude by 2018-end. The transaction is highly beneficial for the FMCG bounty hunters who are seeking for expansion opportunities in India.

Nestle India to Widen Malt Drink Product Portfolio

Nestle India has been selling malt drink Milo and is now seeking for expansion of its product portfolio with acquisition of Horlicks brand by GSK. This in turn helps the company in synergizing distribution of Milo by means of pharmacy channels. Growing demand from parents to fill the nutritional gaps of their children has influenced Nestle in firming up on Horlicks brand acquisition. Local manufacturers are ramping up on their product offerings in order to attract newcomers such as the Manpasand Beverages, a juice-drink maker.

GSK Introduces New Version of Horlicks

GlaxoSmithKline lately introduced a new version of Horlicks with addition of protein for competing in the explosion of ayurvedic products and energy drinks. GSK is strongly focusing on innovation and launch of sachets, which in turn would benefit in recouping growth. However, the decision of parent market to place Horlicks on block by carrying out the strategic analysis of its heavy investment in GSK of India is a threat.

GSK has been planning to continue making heavy investments for intensifying growth opportunities for its oral health and over-the-counter brands in India such as Eno and Sensodyne. The company has been constantly investing in vaccines and pharmaceutical businesses with development of new manufacturing plant in Vemgal, Karnataka. Understanding millennial preferences, employing new acquisition strategies and leveraging new packaging techniques is turning to be play an essential role in the competitive business world.

Aquaculture Meets IoT: A Unison That Would Transform the Fish Farming Industry

One of the most-traded food commodities worldwide is, Fish with developing nations exporting the most of fish to the rest of the world. According to representatives and experts from the food industry, the oceans and inland waters exhibit colossal window of opportunity- even more in the coming future- contributing to food security and adequate nutrition of the growing population worldwide. Aquaculture is the “breeding, rearing, and harvesting of animals and plants in all types of water environments.” Experts believe that aquaculture is one of the most efficient and sustainable ways to produce protein- thereby, catering to nutrition needs and food security in many parts of the world. According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA Fisheries) a US government body responsible for studying, analysis, and protecting the nation’s ocean resources and their habitat, in 2014 alone, the value of the aquaculture market was US$160 billion.

Fish produced from aquaculture is mostly meant for human consumption, however, the by-products are used for non-food purposes. The global aquaculture market is predominantly dominated by Asia (89 percent), with China accounting for almost 62 percent, followed by India, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Egypt. Leeching on the opportunity, “startups in seafood and aquaculture technology, raised US$193 million in 2016, a 271% increase on the US$52 million raised across both 2014 and 2015”, according to Agfunder, a leading platform for accredited investors looking to invest in curated food and agriculture technology companies. Additionally, the ‘2030 Agenda’ adopted by United Nations member states in 2015,  “sets aims for the contribution and conduct of fisheries and aquaculture towards food security and nutrition in the use of natural resources so as to ensure sustainable development in economic, social and environmental terms.”

This brings us to the next part. What more can be done to enhance and improve aquaculture production? Enter Internet of Things (IoT) that has taken the world by storm. Established players and startups are leveraging the power of IoT to develop technologies that pulls data from various sensors and satellites. The massive data recovered from such sensors is put to use to make aquaculture operations more efficient and eco-friendly using cloud-based analytic software tools.

Predictive Software, Cloud-Platforms, and Counting Fish Larvae among More IoT Technologies to Drive Aquaculture

Predictive Platform for Shrimps: Recently, Cargill, a key player in the aquaculture market, launched a predictive software platform that uses machine learning to help farmers manage risks and make better decisions in shrimp farming. Experts believe that this platform will help the shrimp farming industry as shrimps are often exposed to disease and weather risks. Data such as shrimp size, health, quality of water, feeding patterns and weather conditions can be collected by farmers using mobile devices, sensors and, automated feeders. The farmers then make sense of the data using algorithms and make informed decisions regarding feeding strategies and favorable harvest dates. Using IoT-enabled sensors and software, an Indonesian startup is helping shrimps farms to monitor water quality. Conditions like dissolved oxygen, temperature, humidity, pH, salinity and total dissolved solids is measured by this all-in-one device and the data is instantly accessible on a smartphone application. Employing specific algorithms, the data is then used for making corrective actions.

Weather Predicting Technology for Oysters: The Yield is an IoT-powered platform made especially for oyster farming industry uses sensors to collect climate-related data like water temperature and depth, salinity, barometric pressure in the water and sea-tide height- which is then used for a three- day weather prediction on harvesting conditions.

Fish Counting Made Easy: A Canada-based aquaculture-focused startup launched a technology empowered by AI and computer vision to better control fish inventories in fish farms and hatcheries. This IoT-enabled device helps in counting shrimp larvae. The device named XperCount- that allows people one person to count up to five bags of larvae in about 25 minutes, is connected to a portal where consumers can access data and analytics related to counting in the fisheries and hatcheries.

Watching Fish Behavior: An IoT device that runs on solar energy using sensors and machine learning to detect fish behavior and if the fish is ready to be fed was added to the aquaculture industry. Experts believe that the device named UmiGarden is important when it comes chances exercising caution interms of overfeeding. The device uses computer-vision technology for facial recognition to study fish behavior. Additionally, UmiGarden also uses satellite imagery resources to leverage data about environmental conditions, which might affect fish behavior including water temperature. Additionally, Indonesia-based eFishery launched a smartphone-controlled automatic fish feeder that uses sensors to track hungry fish. Experts believe that hungry fish become aggressive creating more turbulence and ripples in the water- sending a signal to the sensors.

IoT for Deep Ocean Research: Scientific agency NOAA and other research institutions have been collectively studying Deep Ocean life through various offshore ranches. NOAA and other research institutions use Navy Oceanographic Meteorological Automatic Device (NOMAD) that helps them to collect and transmit diverse oceanographic data. This data is then used for assessing environmental footprint and optimize farming operations accordingly. An addition to this facility, a device named Cytobot was introduced- enabled with microscope and machine vision that detects harmful algae growth in deep ocean.

What’s next? 

Considering that the consumption of fish is on an all-time rise, fish farming is witnessing an overhaul worldwide and exploring ways to make it more efficient and fruitful in terms of breeding and quality and quantum of production. From using artificial intelligence for monitoring and behavioral analysis of species to machine learning for analytics and predictive modeling, the fish farming sector is continually leveraging the power of IoT. Additionally, mergers and acquisitions will further solidify the IoT trend in aquaculture boosting the market further.

Environment Concerns and Government Emphasis on Renewable Energy to Drive Solar Invertor Sales

With growing importance being given to alternative energy sources to solve the issue of climate change and rapid development of new technologies in the field, the solar energy sector is gaining high priority in both commercial and residential purposes. New government led initiatives and awareness about the effects of environmental pollution are expected to push up the demand for solar inverters worldwide.

Government Initiatives for Developing Green Technologies Show Their Effect

The solar inverter market is showing good signs for the future, because growing need of solar power worldwide, to supplement the inadequate power production through conventional means is gaining importance. Recent times have also produced various developments in the field. Massive monetary investments in the renewable energy industry has propelled the solar energy manufacturer’s activities. For instance, investments in by Australian public sector is expected to rise by more than double in the near future.

In a similar manner, Dubai’s public energy sector has gone into a collaboration with energy companies of the region to boost solar power production capacities of the region by a significant amount. The project which will cost more than 13 billion dollars is expected to increase adoption of solar inverters in the near future for the country.

Electronics in solar inverters are expected to develop on the basis of specific modules and will see increased demand because of low installation and maintenance efforts and costs, coupled with high rates of production for solar power.

Market players are increasingly developing solar inverters with better durability in addition to long-duration warrantees to buyers up to 25 years. Therefore adoption of solar inverters is anticipated to grow rapidly in the years to come.

On the other hand, growing competition in the sector resulting in lowered prices will reduce earnings of solar inverter manufacturers which will restrain the solar inverter market in the years to come.

Efficiency-Boosting Technological Innovations Gain Significance

Numerous manufacturers operating in the solar inverter market are emphasizing on activities involving research to enhance solar inverter performance and better repair, overhaul, and maintenance services by using tech improvements.

Some of the key players in the solar inverter manufacturing sector such as Schneider Electric Co., Emerson Electric Company, Power-one Inc., KACO New Energy Inc., and SMA Solar Technology AG are working on such innovations.

Moreover, these companies are also emphasizing on boosted capacity for producing solar inverters, to fulfil present and future demand. Bonfiglioli for example, has noticeably raised its production capacity by more than 100 per cent in the past few years.

For example, SolarEdge has also released a wide range of new solar inverter products that make use of optimized power gauges for efficient consumption tracking and power flow management. The inverter can easily change from using DC to AC as a result, which makes sure of correct operation in different conditions. In addition, compact solar inverters that are ideal for restricted roof space are also being developed.

For similar use, Sungrow has released solar inverters that utilize single switching transistors that are capable of dealing with a very wide spectrum of voltages in comparison to traditional inverters that despite using multiple transistors are unable to use more than one voltage.

A 3 phase inverter has also been developed by Siemens maintains a fixed level of voltage in spite of multiple changes in the modules or the surrounding environment. The information on the running of such inverters can also studied with a basic internet access for improved troubleshooting processes.

An assessment of the global solar inverter market provides a full write up of the future and present situations in the solar inverter market. The report on the solar inverter market allows the gathering of useful insights to be available for readers.

Robotics to help aid in autism in children

Research experts at the UAE University have come across impressive findings, which state that the robot teachers are substantially effective high-tech tools for boosting the attention levels of children diagnosed with autism. The academics at UAEU College of Informations Technology have ascertained that by leveraging the capabilities of artificial intelligence it is possible to assist future developments in healthcare as children are likely to devote exceeding attention towards robots than they would to any human.

According to researchers, children suffering from autism gave a better response to simple instructions provided by robots as found in the research study. The research further indicated that the learning of children, however, was usually hindered with the intricate ideas by a human face.

Dr. Fady Al Najjar, assistant professor at the UAEU College stated that complex behaviors presented to autistic children would not be accepted by them and the children would try avoiding an eye contact. This would inhibit their learning owing to which their team tried to solve this complexity with the introduction of a robot that presents limited behaviors and lesser physical complexities. He further added that their idea is to present robots to children while a medical professional would add commands behind the scenes. Such an activity would enable them to control the amount of information passed through the robot on to the child from the teacher or doctors.

For this research, the team at UAE University made use of a specific testing with robots. The children were introduced to several screen characters to gauge their response on them.

The research team at the University aims to build an interaction enabled with artificial intelligence between the children and robots so that the machine could learn the commands that are gaining greater attention and response from the child. With this development, doctor’s inputs are likely to reduce enabling them to monitor instead of inputting commands to stimulate and trigger attention from autistic children. Artificial intelligence is not just simplifying tasks for teachers dealing with autistic children but is expected to bring major transformations in the future.

As technology enables several developments in key areas of growth, robotics is gaining increasing significance owing to the endless possibilities that come along with it. The capabilities of robotics and technology are expected to foster the future capabilities of medical treatment and learning. This would enable healthcare professionals to gain effective assistance for complex medical treatment procedures in the foreseeable future.

AHEL to Diversify Its Pharmacy Business

AHEL (Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd) has planned to restructure its business exercise by divesting its pharmacy business by forming it as a separate entity and naming it as APL (Apollo Pharmacies Ltd). The newly formed company will turn out to be a completely owned subsidiary of AMPL (Apollo Medicals Pvt Ltd). Apollo management has mentioned that the new entity is just front-end division of the pharmacy business, which is valued at nearly Rs.5.27Bn.

New investors have taken up on nearly 75% stake for approximately 1.06Bn in Apollo Medicals Pvt Ltd, while parent company, the Apollo Hospitals has been planning to pull up nearly 25% stake in AMPL. The new investors are inclusive of Enam Securities, Jhelum Investment Fund, DSP BlackRock’s chairman and investment banker Hemendra Kothari and these investors will be owning the remaining 75%.

Proposed Reorganization to Beef up Pharmacy Retail Business

Apollo has been taking immense efforts in unlocking the potential of its pharmacy business by sharply focusing on retail sector as well. The company further is planning to enter into e-commerce zone that is basically its omni-network strategy for providing consumers with an option for picking up on physical or online stores. In the forthcoming years, according to Shobana Kamineni, AHEL’s executive vice-chairperson, the company will be looking for new or strategic equity investors, while IPO remains a choice to be explored.

The company had clearly stated that the proposed reorganization will not be holding back any material impact on AHEL’s financials as backend business that is related with the pharmacy business inhibits nearly 85% of business economics, which will be help by AHEL in future as well. The propose move will be highly beneficial for Apollo as it will comply with prescribed FDI (foreign direct investment) limits, which in turn helps in further expanding pharmacy retail business. Apollo is expecting the new organization to be operative by April 2019. Apollo had mentioned that this spin-off will enable the company in maximizing stakeholder value as well as set platform for the ‘value discovery’ pharmacy retail business.

Pharmacy Division Sales Growth: Consolidated Information

The pharmacy business consisted of nearly 38% of Apollo’s Rs.8, 243.5Cr revenues in the FY18. Pharmacy business has increased by 17% on Y-o-Y basis with 4.5% EBITDA margin, which is comparatively lesser than company’s EBITDA of 9.6%. Organized pharmacy retail holds less than 5% of $15Bn domestic pharmaceutical market of India, which is likely to increase by 12% CAGR by over the next 10year time-span that would be predominantly driven by volume growth.

The company has been currently experiencing nearly 27% growth in business with improved operational performance of flagship hospital business. The merged EBITDA rose at 11.3%, while the hospital business EBITDA rose at 18.2%. New hospitals revenue growth increased by 23% with majority revenue share from Tamil Nadu, which consisted of Rs.979.8Cr. Shares of Apollo has increased by 1.82% for closing at Rs.11, 66.15 on BSE.

Forward Looking Plans

Shobana Kamineni has been focusing on creating a multi-year development platform with the expansion of pharmacy outlets to be nearly 5,000 from current 3,167 in the next 5years and is also anticipating a turnover of Rs.100Bn revenue. She further stated that approximately 20% revenue growth would be from the online segment. In addition, Apollo is planning to enhance its private label business to over 12%. Apollo will be entering into brand licensing contract with the APL for licensing Apollo Pharmacy to online pharmacy operations and frontend stores.

Spin-offs have outperformed broadly in the business world with increasing unique investment opportunities expected to take place. By spinning-off pharmacy business, AMPL can remove debt from balance sheet, thereby improving its total margin levels, which in turn becomes valuable for investors.

US-based Avenue Therapeutics to be Acquired for $215 Mn by Cipla Subsidiary

Cipla, the leading player in the global drug market announced that its subsidiary InvaGen had entered into formal agreement to acquire US-based specialty pharmaceutical company Avenue Therapeutics from Fortress Biotech for approximately $215 Mn (Rs. 15.6 Bn). The acquisition is anticipated to take place in two phases.

As stated by Cipla in a regulatory filing, at the closing of the first stage, InvaGen and its affiliates will acquire a 33.3% stake in Avenue Therapeutics’ capital stock, through the issuance of new shares by Avenue on a completely diluted basis for $35 Mn. This activity will involve 5,833,333 common stock shares at a price of $6 per share.

At the same time, with the closing of the issuance of stock, InvaGen and its affiliates will put forth the appointment of 3 members into the 7-member board of directors of Avenue Therapeutics, one of which will be independent. During this second stage activity, InvaGen will acquire the remaining shares of Avenue Therapeutics for a further $180 Mn in total, or $13.92 per share.

Avenue Therapeutics has so far been largely known for the development and commercialization of its proprietary intravenous (IV) painkiller, Tramadol.

The transaction will go through after a number of closing conditions including the approvals from the shareholders of Avenue Therapeutics and regulatory bodies are met satisfactorily. The deal will be financed with the help of a dollar based loan in the United States, putting Cipla on an even footing with industry counterparts such as Sun Pharma and Dr. Reddy’s who already have an established presence in the country.

Cipla, in its statement said that the closing of the second stage of acquisition will be subject to a number of conditions including US Food and Drug Adminsitration approval for labelling and scheduling along with the absence of restrictions such as Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy on Avenue Therapeutics’ IV Tramadol medication.

A spokesperson from Cipla stated that the acquisition deal is anticipated to put Cipla squarely in the lucrative sector of specialty institutional businesses across therapeutic areas present in the US, and to build a dedicated distribution network in specialty products in the US market. The deal also puts Cipla in position to present solutions for the major problem of opioid abuse in the region.

Shares of Cipla were trading at a lower rate of approximately 0.69 per cent at Rs. 528.2 each at the Bombay Stock Exchange.

ADNOC to explore Collaboration Opportunities through the Framework Agreement with Saudi Aramco

A framework agreement was signed by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Saudi Aramco (Aramco). With this agreement the company aims to discover the synergy between Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and natural gas industries.

The framework agreement would enable the two companies to gain more revenue for the two segments. With this deal the companies showcase their strategic focus towards generating greater revenue from the LNG business and natural gas business domain. According to a statement the collaboration will enable exchange of information, experience, and knowledge in the growing LNG market and the companies would partner on techno-economic feasibility studies.

His Excellency Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE Minister of State, said that the UAE has a strong relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This relationship is based on the their mutual strategic interests and with the growing cooperation between Saudi Aramco and ADNOC would ensure increased energy security and economic prosperity for a both nations for a long period of time, he added.

Saudi Aramco President and CEO, Amin Nasser said that the Aramco’s deal with ADNOC strengthens even further with the recent decision of developing a major refinery in India, which is done in partnership. The framework agreement and the mutual strategic interests of expanding their gas business emphasizes their belief in a robust demand growth for gas globally. The corporate transformation strategy of pursuing opportunities which assist in tapping the greater value for both Saudi Aramco and ADNOC and for meeting the needs of its stakeholders across the globe is further supported by their cooperation, he added.

Before the companies signed this agreement, Supreme Petroleum Council of Abu Dhabi (SPC) accepted the new gas strategy proposed by ADNOC that would sustain the production of LNG to 2040, allowing ADNOC to capture incremental growth opportunities in gas-to-chemicals and LNG, where they are developed from the evolving energy mix and dynamic demand and supply position of UAE. With this the company could discover investment opportunities in LNG and produce more value from the international trading expansion in the LNG segment. This will become more prominent with the dominance of the Asian market that would trigger the LNG demand.

The growing investments and partnerships in the natural gas and LNG segment foster the overall growth of the oil and gas sector. These partnerships would offer greater opportunities for the other companies thereby influencing the whole industry.

Deep Green Technology to Be Installed in Faroe Islands: DG 100 model

A deal was cracked between Faroese Power Company SEV and Minesto for installing tidal kite technology. This innovative technology will be installed in waters that are surrounding Faroe Islands. The deal holistically encompasses the operation, commissioning and installation of the two DG100 models of Minesto. Faroese Power Company SEV has also planned to acquire the electricity produced by kite technology by means of power purchase agreement.

SEV will be delivering infrastructures such as the grid connection as well as resources for yielding processes. CEO of Minesto, Martin Edlund had lately mentioned that their kite technology can benefit Faroese Power Company SEV with affordable and predictable means of clean energy along with extreme potential hold for transforming Faroe Islands into 100% renewable energy before the end of 2030.

DG 100 Model to Hype Revenue Sales of Minesto

DG 100 model, is Minesto’s subsea kite technology that weights between 1-2 tons and consists of a wing span that is 4-6meters and has a power rating of nearly 100Kilowatts. The kite technology by Minesto helps in harnessing underwater current that generates hydrodynamic lift force over the wings, thereby pushing it upwards. There is a rudder that steers kite in the figure of eight trajectory plus, as it “flies”, the water flows form the turbine that produces electricity.

CEO of SEV, Hakun Djurhuus had stated that being in remote island society eliminates their privilege of buying electricity from the neighboring nations. Considering the crucial circumstances, the company has taken immense efforts in carrying out tidal stream capacities, as this tidal energy being developed at the appropriate cost level would turn out to be a notable move in the long run for catering to the forthcoming hardships.

The kite technology of Minesto is set to be installed at a site in Vestmannasund that is located in the strait of North-West Faroe Islands. The initial unit is expected to be installed by 2019-end or by first quarter of 2020 and the second unit is likely to be installed before 2020-end.

 

EU Viewpoint on Ocean Energy

The European Commission is of the viewpoint that the “ocean energy” is highly renewable and abundant. EU further anticipates that ocean energy would potentially contribute nearly 10% of the power demand of European Union by 2050. The new technology would benefit in harvesting of energy from the tidal currents and low velocity ocean, thereby multiplying the potential of marine energy. This hydrodynamic principle-based kite technology is highly beneficial for beefing up operational purposes.

US Sanctions on Iran Could Unsettle the Oil Landscape

Oil Experts believe otherwise. Say sufficient world supplies could keep prices under check

Several months after the US President Donald Trump signed an executive memorandum to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal, the recent economic sanctions on Iran’s oil exports along with nation’s aviation, shipping, and banking industries are expected to have quite notable implications on not just the world energy markets and the overall financial business landscape, but also on Iran’s Middle-Eastern geopolitics. But much above that, also lies the risk of jeopardizing the relationship young Iranians have with America. In the early week of November, the US administration reinstated its ‘multi-purpose’ sanctions in the hope that Tehran would accept an improved nuclear deal, restrict Tehran’s ballistic missiles program, and end hostility of some regional groups.

Apart from controlling Iran’s oils, banks, and ports, the economic sanctions has also threatened Iran of excluding it from the America’s financial systems if the nation trades to support the Iranian oil exports. Moreover, US’s the famous exit from Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, is unlikely to return to normality in spite of a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives, Iran’s economy has felt the pressure, with revenue down by almost US$2 Billion and the Iranian Rial, down almost 75 percent since 2017, compared to the US dollar.

The economic sanctions—being termed hawkish by some strong political forces—are projected to translate into much adverse and aggressive Iranian behavior, the most prominent being oil exports and supplies.

Skewed Oil Supply Remains a Concern after US Sanctions on the Islamic Economy

As soon as the Trump administration withdrew from the Iran’s nuclear deal, oil market experts were quick to see the many implication this ruling would have on the global oil and gas market. Already facing the heat of the economic sanction, Iran’s oil exports have significantly fallen to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from a daily average of 2.5 million bpd. This means that Iran the supply is much lesser—nearly 1 million bpd, than what the nation exported a few months back. As per Reuter’s latest report, oil is currently being traded at over UD$70 per barrel, after Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut their output by 0.5 million bpd in December was announced, which came after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) meeting in Abu Dhabi. The Trump administration felt the pressure of Saudi Arabia’s new likely strategies to cut oil output that further translated into softened sanctions for China, India, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Greece, and Turkey. Earlier this week, the President of United States, through a tweet, warned OPEC against reducing oil production. In the tweet, the President also mentioned that the “oil prices must be lowered based on supply”. To keep the oil supplies flourishing, Trump’s last hope remains in Saudi Arabia and assuage further impact of its sanctions on Iran. However, Asian heavyweights like India, Japan, South Korea, and China being allowed to purchase Iranian crude oil is just a short-term fix (six-monthly basis), to ensure temporary trade flows between Iran and Asian nations.

Oil traders have definitely been calmed by the waiver, letting Iran export oil to European and Asian countries. However, in the prospects of tightening oil supplies, the eight waivered countries could seek supplier alternatives and replace Iranian crude. This scenario also resulted in more oil being pumped by producers. A result of which of oils barrels being replaced by producers from Saudi Arabia, US, and Russia. The America oil exports are expected to increases owing to the new pipelines and export terminals along the Gulf of Mexico and in Texas.

In the developed economies, oil experts anticipate further tightening of oil supplies during next summer, translating into higher oil prices. The aviation industry could also take a hit as a result of the rising aviation fuel prices, which often is offloaded on the air travelers. Experts also foresee significant increase in oil price, if Iran decides to block the important passage for Persian Gulf oil- the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, military or cyberattacks on Saudi Arabia and Israel and escalating military hostilities in Yemen, could block many crucial oil trade points.

The oil market’s future could also be defined by how well Iran evades these sanctions, considering the technological advancements like satellites that can be used to track oil tankers with turned-off Automatic Information System—removing them from the monitoring radar. Furthermore, the challenge also lies in receiving payments for the Iranian crude. Oil sales is likely to slow down if US deploys its SWIFT banking exchange system to penalize importers buying Iranian crude.

Sanctions to Remain Powerful Only When Other Powerful Allies are Onboard

The US economic sanctions are a powerful weapon—in some cases, the most powerful among all world superpowers. In the recent time, US’s aim to make use of the sanctions all alone, could work against it and also, to an unimaginable extent dilute its significance, if the Trump administration continues to go head with a this approach. The sanctions, if not pursued in coordination with other superpowers including EU, South Korea, and Japan, could have larger implications on the global international trade landscape, financial markets, and of course, currency trading.

The EU, for instance, is seeking to set up a special financial clearing system, in the form of Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), for Iran and businesses. The immediate goal is of these SPVs is definitely to rescue Iran from the clutches of Washington, but in the years to come, these systems are also projected to prove beneficial for other sanctioned nations including China and Russia, and offer a level-playing field outside the America-ruled system. The setting up of these SPV, although seems much complicated considering the challenges to banks, governments, and global businesses, are a result of the single-handed use of sanction by Washington. However, the National Security Advisor of US, John Bolton recently said that the EU’s efforts evade sanctions on Iran “may be ineffective”.